The US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, global market trends and trading activity of foreign investors are the major factors that would dictate terms in the equity markets in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Equity markets will remain closed on Tuesday on account of Ganesh Chaturthi. From the global front, interest rate decisions from the Bank of England and Bank of Japan would also influence market trends.
Amid a debate on the basis of a monetary policy stance, one may be curious enough to know how non-food retail inflation has behaved over the years in India. Let the eager souls catch a glimpse of facts. In the past 10 years, non-food inflation came down below 4 per cent on two occasions - pre-Covid period of 2019-20 and now in the first four months of the current financial year (FY25).
A higher-than-expected consumer price inflation (CPI) print for March in the US has dashed hopes of an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (US Fed) in June. Analysts now expect the US central bank to start cutting rates in September, provided inflation remains in check and oil prices remain supportive. The markets, analysts believe, partially factored in this possibility.
Boom, bust or a bit of both: as the jury bides time before ruling on the US 'recession', the economy's vital signs at a perplexing time of high-interest rates, still-punishing inflation, and surprisingly strong economic gains are a study of a growing debate over whether the world's largest economy is barrelling into a new downturn. With the US Federal Reserve's (Fed's) inflation fighters attempting the risky pursuit of 'pillow-soft landings' and its economy sending out mixed signals, if there is indeed a recession, it could spell trouble for domestic equities and corporate earnings growth.
India's outward Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) nosedived to $11.12 billion in January-June (H1 2023) from $23.57 billion in the same period last year, indicative of the slowdown in the global economy, according to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data. The outward FDI expressed as the total financial commitment, has three components, namely equity, loan and guarantees. The sharp contraction in the commitments (outward FDI) was prominent in the April-June 2023 period.
Global trends, trading activity of foreign investors, outcome of state elections and RBI's interest rate decision are the major factors that will drive the movement in the domestic equity markets this week, analysts said. "Global markets are currently in a fabulous mood. The US 10-year bond yield and the dollar index are also cooling off, which gives strength to the market. These factors will be closely monitored, as they have the potential to influence market sentiment," said Pravesh Gour, senior technical analyst, Swastika Investmart Ltd. On the political front, the results of assembly elections in five states are eagerly anticipated, Gour said.
The government on Friday extended by six months till March 2022 the deadline to link PAN with biometric ID Aadhaar. In a statement, the Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) said to address the hardship being faced by various stakeholders on account of the COVID-19 pandemic, the timeline has been extended which will ease compliance.
The annual decline works out to be 16.3 per cent in 2022-23 compared to inflows in 2021-22. The gross FDI inflows in 2021-22 were $81.97 billion, up 10 per cent over fiscal 2019-20. The previous year-on-year contraction in FDI was in 2012-13 when the inflows declined by 26 per cent to $34.298 billion.
Maximum cases of advertisement norms violations were reported from the healthcare sector during 2023-24, followed by illegal offshore betting and personal care categories, according to the Advertising Standards Council of India's (Asci's) Annual Complaints Report released on Wednesday. The healthcare sector accounted for a maximum 19 per cent or 1,569 of 8,229 advertisements scrutinised by Asci during the year. Illegal offshore betting accounted for 17 per cent, while the share of personal care advertisements was 13 per cent.
Do not keep a large portion of your long-term portfolio in FDs.
India and the US have settled the last trade dispute at the World Trade Organization (WTO) over poultry products, according to a joint statement released on Friday. With this, the two countries have mutually resolved all the seven pending trade disputes at the WTO. "The leaders lauded the settlement of the seventh and last outstanding WTO dispute between India and the United States.
The government has approved the 'Terms of Reference' for the 16 Finance Commission, which makes recommendations on sharing of tax revenues between the Centre and states. The recommendations would cover a five-year period commencing April 1, 2026, Information and Broadcasting Minister Anurag Thakur said on Wednesday, giving details about the decisions taken at the Cabinet meeting last evening. The commission would submit its report by October 31, 2025, Thakur said.
The regulatory gap between crypto firms registered with the Financial Intelligence Unit-India (FIU-India) and unregistered offshore entities is expected to narrow, industry players said, after global crypto players Binance and KuCoin received approvals to register with India's anti-money laundering unit.
The Competition Commission of India has introduced draft regulations for combinations or mergers, under the new competition Act, to bring global deals in the digital space, including those involving Big Tech companies, under its scanner. The draft regulations would provide guidance on the valuation of merger transactions and the criteria for assessing sustainable operations in India for companies. The proposed rules mention that if the number of users and subscribers, or the turnover or gross merchandise value in India is over 10 per cent of the global figure, the company would be considered to have substantial business operation in India and would need CCI approval for the merger.
'We expect market consolidation and recommend buying during market dips.'
In a path-breaking decision with far-reaching socio-economic impact, the Centre has allowed woman employees to nominate her son or daughter for family pension, instead of her husband, according to an official statement issued on Monday. Previously, family pension was granted to the spouse of a deceased government servant or pensioner, while other family members became eligible only after the spouse's ineligibility or demise, the statement said. Union Minister of State for Personnel Jitendra Singh said that the Department of Pensions and Pensioners' Welfare (DoPPW) has introduced an amendment to the Central Civil Services (Pension) Rules, 2021, allowing female government employees or pensioners to grant family pension to their eligible child/children after their own demise, in place of of their spouse.
Retail investors now own a larger share of smallcap companies than they did a year ago, thanks to their conviction in mutual fund (MF) schemes focused on this segment. Data from Capitaline shows that MFs' average holding in the National Stock Exchange Nifty Smallcap 250 Index stood at 9 per cent at the end of the October-December quarter of 2023-24 (FY24), up from 7.76 per cent in the same quarter of 2022-23.
India's internet economy is estimated to reach $1 trillion by 2030, primarily due to e-commerce, which is expected to be worth $325 billion and rank third globally, according to industry experts. Last year marked a crucial turning point for India's e-commerce sector, with notable changes in consumer trends, technology, and regulations. InGovern Research Services, a leading corporate governance advisory firm, hosted a virtual roundtable to deliberate on the notable developments in India's e-commerce sector in 2023, with a particular focus on the essential role of customer trust in fueling its ongoing expansion.
With digital adoption fast gaining currency, India is likely to see retail digital payments double to $7 trillion by 2030 from current levels, a study by Kearney and Amazon Pay said. In the report 'How Urban India Pays', Kearney-Amazon Pay said strong adoption of digital payments in online purchases has potentially led to a permanent shift in consumer behaviours, fuelling offline adoption as well.
Reserve Bank of India on Friday said it has imposed a penalty of Rs 93 lakh on Axis Bank for various violations, including those related to KYC guidelines. The central bank has also slapped a fine of Rs 90 lakh on IDBI Bank. A monetary penalty of Rs 93 lakh has been imposed on Axis Bank for non-compliance of certain directions issued by RBI, the regulator said in a release.
The post-Covid pandemic boom in corporate revenues appeared to have faded away in 2023-24. Yet, companies have reported a sharp recovery in their profits in FY24, driven by high margins. Their combined net sales, including gross interest income for lenders, rose by a modest 4.8 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in FY24.
Several opposition ruled states expressed concern over Centre's decision to allow enforcement directorate (ED) to share information with GST Network, with finance minister of AAP-ruled Punjab Harpal Singh Cheema on Tuesday saying it amounts to 'tax terrorism' and scaring small business. The finance ministry, through a notification, brought in an amendment to the provisions of Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA), 2002, as per which GSTN, which handles the technology backbone of Goods and Services Tax, has been included in the list of entities with which ED will share information. At the 50th GST Council meeting on Tuesday, Aam-Aadmi Party ruled Delhi and Punjab voiced concerns over the notification and demanded a discussion.
From the Sensex pack, Reliance Industries jumped the most by 3.78 per cent. Tata Steel, Bharti Airtel, IndusInd Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, UltraTech Cement, ICICI Bank and Tata Motors were the other biggest gainers. Titan, HCL Technologies, Power Grid, Tata Consultancy Services, Wipro, Hindustan Unilever, Axis Bank and Nestle were among the major laggards.
Aadhaar holders who were issued the unique ID more than 10 years back but have not updated their details since then are being urged to update identification and residence proof documents, UIDAI said. In a statement, UIDAI -- the government agency that issues Aadhaar numbers -- said the updation can be done online as well as at Aadhaar centres. It said those who were issued the unique identification number more than 10 years back and have not done any updation since the issue are being "requested" to update their documents.
The government has allowed the Enforcement Directorate to share information about economic offenders with 15 more agencies, including SFIO, CCI and NIA, a move that will expedite nailing of law-breakers. The finance ministry notified changes to the Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA), 2002, on November 22. Through the notification, the Enforcement Directorate (ED), which deals primarily with cases of money laundering and violations of foreign exchange laws, would be able to share data with a total of 25 agencies, including the 10 specified earlier.
Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran considers absolute poverty a more direct and pressing concern for India. He argues that inequality is a relative concept. Simultaneously, with formerly economically deprived sections joining the ranks of the middle class, policy attention needs to extend beyond 'roti, kapda, makaan' to keep the growth engine up and running.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday allowed credit cards to be linked with the unified payments interface (UPI), which will enable more people to make payments using the popular platform. At present, UPI facilitates transactions by linking savings or current accounts through users' debit cards. "...it is proposed to allow linking of credit cards to UPI," RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said while announcing the regulatory moves, along with the bi-monthly policy review.
The Lucknow bench of Allahabad high court on Tuesday refused to quash criminal proceedings against a journalist for allegedly sharing incorrect facts as information on social media.
Wilful defaulters owe SBI Rs 80,000 crore. 10 nationalised banks are owed another Rs 1.5 trillion.
'IPOs have performed exceptionally well, with a notable increase in average ticket size from Rs 800 crore in the last financial year to around Rs 1,300 crore in this financial year.'
The tailwind of low price erosion in the US generics market, seen by domestic pharmaceutical companies in calendar year 2023 (CY23), may be reversing slowly, caution analysts. According to the latest data from US-based Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMMS), price erosion in calendar year 2024 (CY24) on a year-to-date (YTD) basis stood at a high of 15 per cent in the oral solid dosage (OSD) segment compared to a low of 1 per cent in CY23. This erosion, according to a report by Antique Stock Broking, was the highest in the last three years.
96 per cent is being collected through TDS, advance tax, self-assessment tax, and other receipts.
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) selling spree continued as they dumped Indian equity worth over Rs 5,800 crore this month so far on rising interest rates and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This came after such investors withdrew Rs 24,548 crore in October and Rs 14,767 crore in September, data with the depositories showed. Before the outflow, FPIs were incessantly buying Indian equities in the last six months from March to August and brought in Rs 1.74 lakh crore during the period.
Strategic deals like the one involving the HDFC twins accounted for a bulk $126 billion of the overall quantum, while transactions involving private equity funds stood at $37 billion, the report by Deloitte, a consultancy firm, said. Despite global headwinds like rising interest rates and elevated inflation levels leading to increased margin pressures for companies, the firm expects the overall activity to remain "strong" in the ongoing 2023.
The total benefits paid by private life insurance companies to policyholders rose by 5.98 per cent to Rs 1.57 trillion during 2022-23. This figure stood at Rs 1.49 trillion in the corresponding year-ago period. On the other hand, Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) paid out 4 per cent fewer benefits at Rs 3.39 trillion from Rs 3.53 trillion in 2021-22.
The global billionaires list witnessed as many as 94 new entrants from India, stated a report by Hurun India on Tuesday. Following a net addition of 84, the country's billionaire tally touched 271 with their combined wealth at $1 trillion, noted the report. Mukesh Ambani, chairman & managing director of Reliance Industries, is the only Indian to make it into the top 10 of the Hurun Global Rich List 2024, a ranking of billionaires in US dollar terms.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday said its board has approved a dividend payment of Rs 30,307 crore to the government for the financial ended March 2022. The board approved the transfer of Rs 30,307 crore as surplus to the central government for the accounting year 2021-22 while deciding to maintain the Contingency Risk Buffer at 5.50 per cent, RBI said in a statement. The decision on the dividend payment was made in the 596th meeting of the Central Board of Directors of RBI, headed by Governor Shaktikanta Das, held on Friday.
The Union government on Friday said it would not notify the fact checking unit (FCU) contemplated under the amended information technology (IT) rules against fake news till the Bombay high court delivers its judgment on the petitions challenging the amendments.
Equity investors became poorer by over Rs 5 lakh crore in early trade on Thursday as domestic benchmark indices tumbled mirroring weak trends in global equities. The 30-share BSE benchmark Sensex tanked 1,154.78 points to 53,053.75 in early deals tracking weak global markets, persistent foreign fund outflows and a spurt in crude oil prices. The weak broader market trend pulled down the market capitalisation of BSE-listed firms by Rs 5,02,731.03 crore to Rs 2,50,74,714.78 crore in early trade.
Three years after India declared its goal to become a net-zero economy by 2070, the policy design for achieving the target has begun, with the NITI Aayog forming dedicated multi-sectoral committees to prepare a transition plan. In 2021, India joined a select group of nations that set a target year for becoming net-zero carbon economy. At COP26 in Glasgow, Prime Minister Narendra Modi outlined a five-pronged 'Panchamitra' climate action target for India and committed to a net-zero target by 2070, joining nations like the US, the UK, and China.
